hi clo,
there's not yet much sign of runaway inflation in the us. even before oil declined. but prices of goods like oil swing around which is why a lot of folks use a measure called core inflation to see what is going on under the hood of an economy. core inflation excludes volatile items like commodity prices.
eg oil prices are going down generally, but russian inflation is going up partly due to a swooning currency. when a currency swoons the prices of imports increase.
in the us federal reserve world, the question folks are wondering is whether you combat inflation ahead of its appearance based on anticipation? or do you wait until after it appears before combatting it?
i expected inflation to begin to reappear once we hit 6% unemployment. but no such luck. because actually, a bit of inflation can be a good thing. it is certainly less awful than deflation.
but again, oil prices on their own won't generate deflation either. i recommend watching the core measure.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/core-inflation-rate
[i suggest resetting the start date to 1970. you'll see how little there is to worry about inflation running amok right now]
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