hi doma,
folks judge likelihoods without worrying so much about the formality of a court decision.
we all remember who was shooting down planes at that time, who was thrilled to report that fact on social media, who claimed to have downed this plane immediately, who was reported to have supplied missile launchers to its ukrainian rebel actors, who took control of crimea etc.
so i make a judgement. but i am willing to be unpersuaded if someone with credibility emerges to challenge it. putin's people aren't going to suffice.
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