Nightmare scenario from Roger Cohen.
The Unlikely Road to War
It could not happen again. Of course, it could not happen. The institutions and alliances of a connected world ensure the worst cannot happen again. The price would be too high, no less than nuclear annihilation. Civilization is strong, humanity wise, safeguards secure.
Then, too, exactly a century ago, it could not happen. The world had finessed other moments of tension. Yet very quickly Austria-Hungary had declared war on Serbia, prompting Russia to mobilize in defense of Belgrade, prompting the Kaiser’s Germany to attack France pre-emptively and Britain to declare war on Germany. The war haunts us still.
The unthinkable is thinkable. Indeed, it must be thought. Otherwise it may occur.
Russia annexes Crimea. It declares war on Ukraine, takes Donetsk in short order, and annexes the eastern half of the country.
The United States warns Russia not to advance on Kiev. But a Ukrainian counterattack inflicts heavy casualties, prompting a Russian advance on the capital.
Two NATO F-16s are shot down during a reconnaissance flight close to the Lithuanian-Russian border. Russia declares war on Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
Invoking Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty — an attack against one member shall be considered an attack against all — the United States and its European allies come to their defense. China, in what it calls a pre-emptive strike, invades Taiwan, “a potential Crimea.” Japan and India declare war on China.
World War III has begun.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/18/opinion/cohen-the-unlikely-road-to-war.html?emc=edit_ee_20140318&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=21157678
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