Russia's View on the Possible Syria Intervention
August 29, 2013 | 1349 GMT
Summary
Russia has emphasized its opposition to a military intervention in Syria at the U.N. Security Council, but a U.S. operation in Syria could actually benefit Moscow. The Russian and Chinese envoys to the United Nations walked out of the Security Council meeting in New York on Aug. 28 after U.S. Permanent Representative Samantha Power called for immediate action in Syria. The United Kingdom also submitted a draft resolution to the five permanent members of the Security Council -- Russia, the United Kingdom, China, the United States and France -- that called for "authorizing all necessary measures to protect civilians" in Syria, including an armed operation in the country.
Russia has long used its relationship with the Syrian regime against the West, particularly the United States. Despite warnings from the West, Moscow has supplied the Syrians with weapons and provisions during their two-year conflict. Russia's plan has long been to use its ties to Syria to prevent the West from going too far in areas that truly affect Russia, including issues that involve former Soviet states.
Analysis
Russia's position at the Security Council is that it does not want to vote on the option for intervention in Syria without having seen the U.N. inspectors' report on whether the regime used chemical weapons. With the U.N. experts in Syria until Aug. 31, no one has seen what the investigation has uncovered. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov said, "Certain states are ready to use force even before U.N. experts make public the results of their investigation. Our country will be committed to international law."
Limits to Russian Support for Syria
For Russia, Syria is a bargaining chip, not a country that affects Russia's primary interests. While Russia supports the regime in Damascus, its support does not extend to militarily defending the regime should the West move to intervene. Russia does have a military presence in Syria at the port of Tartus, but it is not willing to put its own military personnel at risk in defense of Damascus. Nor has Russia shown any inclination to move its military or air defense systems, such as the S-300, to Syria in recent days.
With a possible U.S. military intervention closing in, if Russia wanted to raise the risk level for a U.S. operation then its window to act could already be closed. In addition, Russia does not want to attempt a military reply in Syria, as it did in 1999 in Kosovo, and risk looking foolish. In the Kosovo War, Western countries ignored Russia's opposition to military intervention and took measures before a U.N. Security Council decision. In response, Russia deployed 200 airborne troops to the Kosovar capital, Pristina, to head off the NATO troops' arrival. However, French and British troops limited Russian troops to the airport, embarrassing Moscow. Of course, Russia in 1999 was far weaker than Russia today, but the uncertainty of trying to militarily aid Syria is not worth the risk for Moscow.
In addition, Russia may use Syria as leverage with the West, but it will not support the Syrian regime to the point that it would break relations with key Western partners such as the United Kingdom or France, which are part of the U.S. intervention plans. Moscow's relationships with London and Paris have grown more important in recent months following a string of energy and economic deals. At a time when cracks in the Russian economy are starting to show, Russia will not alienate those European partners -- especially not for Syria's situation.
Russia's Plan
Russia is attempting to turn the situation to its favor in other ways. First, the Moscow media campaign is in full swing. Russia is stressing how brash the United States would be if it moved toward a military operation without Security Council support or before the U.N. investigation is complete. In Russian Deputy Premier Dmitri Rogozin's words, the United States is behaving as if it were a "monkey with a hand grenade."
In turn, the Russians are promoting themselves as pragmatists when it comes to Syria. Russia will continue this spin going into next week, when it will host the G-20 Summit in St. Petersburg, which U.S. President Barack Obama will attend. Another reason for its commitment to diplomacy thus far is that Russia wants to ensure that the world's leaders will still attend the summit.
Ultimately, Russia would benefit if the United States became bogged down in another domestically unpopular military intervention in the Middle East. Even if it went with a limited and quick military intervention, the United States would have a difficult time handling the post-war situation and the intervention's ramifications across the region. Russia used earlier opportunities, when the United States was bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan, to strengthen its country and reassert its influence in its region. Russia's re-emergence continues today in the former Soviet states and Europe, so having Washington preoccupied in the Islamic world gives Russia more room to work.
But a U.S. intervention in Syria also presents an opportunity for Moscow and Washington to work together after the military campaign, thawing the current cold between the two. The United States has given signs that even if it does intervene, it does not aim to break the regime in Damascus. Russia has close ties with many elites in the regime and could be in a position to try to negotiate a diplomatic option to extricate Bashar al Assad from the situation.
For the United States and Russia, tensions have been worsening in recent months over a series of issues, including Russia's decision to grant asylum to NSA leaker Edward Snowden, Russia's resurgence in Europe and the two sides' differing views on Syria. Although it would seem to make relations even worse if the United States ignored Russia's opposition to a military intervention in Syria, it would clear one major disagreement from the table in the long term while presenting an opportunity for the two to work together. Then again, such opportunities have come and gone in the past with both sides unwilling to break the standoff.
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