« ALEA Home | Email msg. | Reply to msg. | Post new | Board info. Previous | Home | Next

Re: Once every 4,800 years.....

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Wed, 17 Apr 13 7:48 PM | 149 view(s)
Boardmark this board | The Trust Matrix
Msg. 13301 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 13299 by faul)

Jump:
Jump to board:
Jump to msg. #

ha ha.

those mathematicians.

don't they know that the scale of a crash rather depends upon the magnitude of the bubble. perhaps the bubble was a one in 10,000 year job!!

gold bubbles of different sizes occur every once in a while. when you have bubbles, they are usually followed by crashes.

why are crashes sudden? i guess because when you reach a top, there isn't much but air below. but i agree that the catalyst which exposes the erosion in belief is often caused by traders who care not a jot about them.

i think folks suppose there are better asset classes to invest in now that real estate is recovering.

http://www.businessinsider.com/everyone-should-be-thrilled-by-the-collapse-of-gold-2013-4

i am surprised you have abandoned your original theory about demand. it used to be extraterrestrial demand. where are those astronaut gods when you need them!




» You can also:
- - - - -
The above is a reply to the following message:
Once every 4,800 years.....
By: faul
in ALEA
Wed, 17 Apr 13 7:28 PM
Msg. 13299 of 54959

Sooooo....what's Really going on??

"Let’s just say the sun is expected to burn out first.’"

You want us to believe that everyone just
woke up and realised that there will be no
hyperinflation??

"Concerning gold, let’s note firstly something sent to us by our old friend John Brimelow, who had a most interesting piece in his commentary this morning regarding the violence of the recent price changes. He noted a piece written by Russell Rhoads, CFA of the CBOE Option Institute, who wrote the following:

"’Friday was a 4.88 standard deviation move in the price of gold. For simplicity’s sake let’s call it a five standard deviation move. Statistically we get a five standard deviation move approximately once every 4,776 years. So we should not expect another move like this out of the price of gold until May 17, 6789. … Currently the two-day price change in GLD is 16.65, which can be converted to just over eight standard deviations. I wanted to share what this comes to, but the table I use only goes up to seven standard deviations. Let’s just say the sun is expected to burn out first.’"


« ALEA Home | Email msg. | Reply to msg. | Post new | Board info. Previous | Home | Next