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Re: saddest wave post of all

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Mon, 08 Apr 13 5:41 AM | 124 view(s)
Boardmark this board | The Trust Matrix 		Msg. 13192 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 13191 by DigSpace)
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hi dig,

i think some of them genuinely believe the technology will catch and when it does, all the misery will be reversed.

unfortunately, these folks have felt the same thing for a decade. and at some point you have to say - it is impossible to know and it may take another ten years.

in the meantime, wave is on the hook for development costs for which it seems to get paid almost nothing. the more oems that adopt the trusted model while enterprises fail to purchase it, the worse the economics gets.

so their cost structure keeps deteriorating. once pcs are done, then it's tablets. once tablets are done, then it's phones. once ms machines are done, it's onto apple and linux. i used to imagine tc meant one size fits all. but every new chip company seemed to require customisation, every category of equipment, every os and every oem the same thing. and then, wherever a customer has adopted eras, more customisation.

so basically, wave has taken over the development cost for everyone. and so no one requires an roi except wave.

i don't know much about individual board members. but i've read enough gilder stuff to figure the model. he operates a supply side model in every scenario. build it and they will come. demand is simply presumed. wave is yet another output of that puritan theory of how the world works. the same theory bankrupted a large number of companies and investors in the telecosm. it practically bankrupted the united states after 30 years of supply side economics. wave employs the same theory in the security space.

fortunately for me, i was given the opportunity to learn something about demand side theories along the way. how it pulls product into the market, can be used to manage inventory, keeps the economy humming etc. and frankly, supply side theory looks pretty dumb when you think about overstocked inventory, excess mortgage loans to sub-prime purchasers, or unused tpms. demand shapes the market. it ought to be wave's guide. but they have chosen to rely upon genius instead - simply to imagine what the world wants.

maybe one day demand will appear. but so far, the supply side theory has offered its usual yield. massive excess upfront capacity. and the capital destruction which accompanies it.

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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: saddest wave post of all
By: DigSpace in ALEA
Mon, 08 Apr 13 1:33 AM 		Msg. 13191 of 54959

you, I, and others have tried to illuminate a distinction between a technology or packet of IP surviving and prospering and what impact it has on current shareholders in that technology or packet of IP.

I think the cult leaders, with their hundreds of thousands of shares, figure they will do o.k. even if/then of a serious meltdown, so they ignore the math, and don't dare consider the whole process of a reorganization and the pecking order of honored obligations (an order on which they stand at the very very very bottom, by law as I understand it, and sensibly so).

I've tried to make a hallmark of distinguishing company success and shareholder success for some time, but such efforts are by far not my most eloquent, the fact is other shiny objects distract my limited attention span. HhH made this case a long time ago, he broached the notion that all that the cult leaders say can happen may happen and they may be correct, and that it could happen WITHOUT them. Howie, as I recall, had been damaged by such an event in the past, a company that succeeded but left him holding kindling starter.

I think that is where Wave is going. I think the senior WAVX management does not see that (except Gilder, I think it has been his plan, I think he is a jaded, twisted, wicked, loser .... I'm just trying to be civil here, the only thing Gilder loathes more than humans in general is shareholders), Nolan couldn't give a fancy fug, life is a ride to him and I respect and appreciate that, Mac is dead (TMI bit: the freezer portion of my top/bottom fridg/freezer has been failing, it can't freeze, but it can keep things pretty cold, we keep dead animals there, we call it the morgue, Mac has a slot there, but he won't fit).

And these are the people the cult leaders are giving, uh, ... bob's got rules and he seems to be remarkably tolerant within a few very modest rules .... but generally a notion towards an unhealthy coupling of the oral fecal route.

As in my deleted content, I see no point in navigation at this point, the boat has just done hit the rocks, or the rocks are so certain as to make looking at them at all a waste of time. Sure, pretty topless sirens may appear, and in such a case I will stand mesmerized with the rest, but until then, nuff of this till Q1 numbers.


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