CF,
We don't think that Kim Jong Un is anything other than somewhat of an irrational person trying to hang onto his seat of power against the military who have really always had the irrational thought that they could win a war on the Korean penninsula. Kim reminds me of Saddam in his rush to invade Kuwait in 2000. The big fear here is the same as it was in the last Korean war: China being drawn into a conflict on the side of North Korea and starting another major war in the process.
Also, you have an irrational person in Kim who would probably use his nuclear weapons against South Korea whether that was in anybody's best interests or not. Remember that the United States has nuclear capable Stealth bombers on the pennensula right now and the tempation is that if an invasion of the south threatens our troops there to simply carry out a limited nuclear strike on Kim's forces before they can do any real damage, particularly if he has used nukes already.
We feel that this thing has the potential to go nuclear simply because of Kim's irrationality and the results of over a half century of isolation in the north in which God only knows what sort of thinking and illusions have developed.
The closing of access to the joint manufacturing plant in the North is a significant event which removes the last bit of comfort that the South and the other powers in the region were clinging to. Kim is only twenty nine years old and is acting like what some of the news media is calling a "man child"with lots of "toys" to play with.
There is no rationality there!
Regards,
Joe
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