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Re: raise $1m at the expense of a loss of market value of around $10m

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Fri, 15 Mar 13 10:02 PM | 71 view(s)
Boardmark this board | The Trust Matrix 		Msg. 12900 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 12899 by tkc)
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hi tkc,

my billings guess is $10m or so, like the inflow.

but i think they will report revenue of $8m due to the little bird order (which defers the income to 2013).

i am not going to spend the time to figure prepaid maintenance on old large orders etc. i don't think it is a huge number.

i think the only major order still in the non-maintenance revenue pipeline is BP.

so if there's a $2m order at the end of q4, which was paid upfront, that will just about replace BP for 2013.



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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: raise $1m at the expense of a loss of market value of around $10m
By: tkc in ALEA
Fri, 15 Mar 13 9:26 PM 		Msg. 12899 of 54959

are you mixing together revenue and cash calculations?

Yes but only because they are so cash straped. At the end of Q3 current liabilities exceeded current assets by $5M. Almost all their expenses (sans SBC & depr) require cash, only 5% of rev is COGS - all the rest is payroll, rent and travel which can only be stretched so far. Their current ratio says they've stretched way too much already. The 3.3PP was needed to reduce that gap. Also not all of the rev they've been reporting is new - some continues to come from def rev and long term def rev. That cash (maybe as much as $1.4M last Q) was cash that was spent many Qs ago. I'm only interested in new business that will add new cash that can be used to pay expenses. We'll see soon.

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