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Re: raise $1m at the expense of a loss of market value of around $10m

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Fri, 15 Mar 13 8:30 PM | 91 view(s)
Boardmark this board | The Trust Matrix 		Msg. 12895 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 12893 by tkc)
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hi tkc,

are you mixing together revenue and cash calculations?

i am assuming $8m of revenue and $10m of cash inflows.

why the discrepancy?

snackman speculated there was a $2m deal at the end of q4 that was unannounced. i have assumed he heard that from a little bird.

but major orders are recognised over the following 12 months. so that drives my original q4 revenue (with no major orders) down by $2m.

they received $3m+ in q4 equity sales. in my calculation, they received an extra $2m in major sales. they appear to have been cutting costs vigorously. that gets them through q4 and part way through q1. on wednesday, they were back to the well and willing to offer a discount and a sweetener, suggesting the money was tight as a drum.

it just about makes sense to me.


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: raise $1m at the expense of a loss of market value of around $10m
By: tkc in ALEA
Fri, 15 Mar 13 8:04 PM 		Msg. 12893 of 54959

Hi CF, I just don't see how they could increase current A/P as in Q3 they exceeded total rev by ~$5.5M. COH @ $2M was about as low as it can be. A/R has deceased for 4 continuous Q's. In my mind that only leaves three areas as sources to keep doors open: financing, increased rev and decreased OpEx.

Assume they decreased OpEx from $12.6 to $11.5 ($1.85 is non cash) and they used all the $3.3 PP and got ~.250 more from ESPP and warrants et al. That would leave $6.1 that had to be paid requiring $6.5 in rev.

But CF that would leave them w/ a little more than 2 weeks working capital - they went 11 weeks into Q1. I just can't figure how they could do that w/o total destruction of the balance sheet, massive layoffs or significant increase in rev. So I'll stick w/ $10+ and be wrong again.

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