from Paul B. Farrell:
Big money managers are warning invertors. They’re now citing the Bible: “Seven lean years.” No recovery till 2016. That was Jeremy Grantham back a few years ago. His GMO firm manages $104 billion.
Now Bill Gross and Mohamed El-Erian, the co-CEOs at the $2 trillion Pimco money managers, are citing the same biblical warning to jar investors awake and prepare for the coming lean years of slow, low growth and austerity. Except in Pimco’s new warning, the future just got much, much darker for investors — no recovery until 2022.
…
Here’s a summary of 10 points Foroohar picked up from meetings with El-Erian and Gross.
1. America fell in love with a Goldilocks economy
As early as 2005 Pimco warned that investors, voters and politicians had fallen in love with “a Goldilocks economy, the notion that markets were in a long period of growth and stability, neither too hot nor too cold.” El-Erian “never believed the bull” about wise “world’s central bankers and the seemingly endless growth of emerging markets.”
2. Economists predicting 3% to 4% growth are misleading America
Pimco was “quick to see, post-2008, the passing of an era,” says Foroohar. The unthinkable was happening: “The U.S. flirting with default, unlimited central-bank money dumps were suddenly happening.” Worse, today “while most experts (including those within the Obama administration) were plotting how to move from recession back to the trend growth rate of 3% or 4%,” Pimco concluded that a low 2% growth will probably be the New Normal “not for a couple of years but for decades.”
3. Warning: Too many investors, banks, politicians still in denial
Many investors are still disappointed with their nest eggs, in denial, ignoring Pimco’s message, trapped in wishful thinking, hoping for a return of the short-term bull-bear cycles common in recent decades, unwilling to face the harsh reality of the New Normal with slow growth everywhere: consumer spending, jobs, government revenues, corporate earnings, stocks, bonds, commodities, even America’s role in the world.
4. Investing is like surfing and the money wave may soon crash
Surfing is a popular Gross metaphor: Imagine waves of investor opinions moving stock prices. Whether surfing or investing, you “ride the wave,” sense the crest, always knowing that “ultimately a good surfer has to kick out.” Or get wiped out “when the wave crashes. And the money wave, says Gross, may be ready to crash.”
http://beforeitsnews.com/financial-markets/2012/11/pimcos-new-warning-the-future-just-got-much-much-darker-for-investors-stocks-dead-bonds-deader-until-2022-2471916.html
Realist - Everybody in America is soft, and hates conflict. The cure for this, both in politics and social life, is the same -- hardihood. Give them raw truth.
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