Owing to weapons and fighters from Libya, the advance of al-Qaeda's affiliates in Mali is linked, to a certain extent, to the Arab Awakening. Of course, this reality cannot serve as an argument against the popular uprisings, especially given that the unstable binary opposition between secular strongmen and violent "Islamic" movements long served as an important enabler of jihadism.

The autocratic regimes argued that they were the guarantors of stability and the only bulwark against a jihadi takeover, while the jihadis maintained that the only way to remove those autocracies was through violence. The radicalism which flourished in that prior context is now, in the fragility of transition, announcing itself.

In Libya itself, a trend of small attacks against western targets, including the Red Cross and a British diplomatic convoy, culminated last month with an assault on the US consulate in Benghazi, resulting in the deaths of four diplomatic staff, including the US Ambassador. New governments in Tunisia and Egypt are likewise dealing with a sharpened extremist threat. Tunisian forces have clashed with armed groups connected to al-Qaeda in Libya and October 26, a Tunisian man was arrested for links to the Benghazi consulate attack.

Over in Egypt, the Sinai is said to have become a "seedbed of al-Qaeda-inspired cadres", with deadly attacks on border guards in August prompting a military offensive from Cairo, and the reported failure of a recent dialogue initiative. Militants have promised a terrorist spectacular soon.

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) was able to make significant advances during the 2011 anti-government protests in Yemen, scarcely impeded in its seizure of Abyan province by a military which was paralysed by rivalries between supporters and opponents of President Ali Abdullah Salah. In the summer of 2012, under the new President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi, al-Qaeda and its allies were pushed out of Abyan. However, recent reports suggest that AQAP has resurfaced in the al-Mahfad district of Abyan, with plans to soon retake the districts of al-Mahfad, Lawdar and Mudiyah.

In Syria, as the 20-month old political crisis has become a military one, a handful of jihadi groups have undoubtedly gained a foothold, bringing, as they do, battlefield experience, bravery, and a fierce determination to establish themselves on the doorstep of Israel. While Syrian activists criticise the western media for over-cooking the jihadist angle, there can be no doubting the potential for radical groups to consolidate their gains the more intractable, and thus protracted, the conflict becomes.

Across the border in Jordan, the General Intelligence Branch this month claimed to have aborted a major plot, timed to coincide with the anniversary of the 2005 Amman Bombings, and involving explosives and munitions brought in from Syria, and possibly Iraq.

In Iraq, events in Syria have undoubtedly re-invigorated al-Qaeda in Iraq, which, albeit away from international news headlines, has wreaked havoc over the course of 2012, killing 116 people in one day alone. Like its ideological cousins in the Sinai, al-Qaeda's Iraqi affiliates have indicated that training is underway for a major operation, in which they hope to take back territory, and which may well involve a massive offensive against Shia targets in order to stoke sectarian tensions and exploit the regional faultlines that have appeared over Syria.

A global threat?

This potential for short-term gains in chaotic, localised contexts, involving a broad range of al-Qaeda inspired actors, will not necessarily translate into a coordinated and coherent global threat in line with Osama bin Laden's objective. Indeed, since bin Laden's demise, the crisis of authority within al-Qaeda has accelerated, resulting in splits and leadership contestation even within local al-Qaeda offshoots.

For example, al-Shabab in Somalia appears riven with schisms between Somali and foreign fighters. The American Commander Omar Hammami in March released a statement declaring that he feared for his life, which he followed up three weeks ago with an "urgent" message on YouTube, imploring al-Qaeda's central leadership to intervene in the dispute.

With regard to AQIM, a letter intercepted last month [AR], and attributed to AQIM Emir Abdulmalek Droukdel, spoke of an "ill" organisation in which foot soldiers no longer listened to their superiors, carrying out random and undisciplined operations, often for personal gain. It is also an open question whether Mokhtar Belmokhtar will bow unreservedly to the authority of Droukdel's newly appointed Emir of the Sahel regions, Djamal Akache. Perhaps the purpose of the October Sahel "coordination" meeting, in which Droukdel's deputy and some Libyans were captured, may have been for various factions to reconcile and settle their differences, rather than to join forces in a superplot.

In the long run, al-Qaeda's fate will ultimately depend on the survival of the critical current within its own ranks, and its ability to maintain focus on hitting western targets. The leaders of AQAP in Yemen recognise this reality, and have devoted a great deal of energy to hitting a major western target, in the hope of reclaiming bin Laden's original mission and moving "jihad" out of the region and into the west. They have also tried to curb fanaticism and show a more moderate face to the Yemeni people, in order to win over the "Muslim masses".

It remains to be seen whether their loose allies in Somalia, Mali, Egypt, Iraq and Syria will reinforce or undermine AQAP in its task of global renewal. Initial indicators are not positive, given the shocking levels of brutality that continue to be meted out to Muslims across the region in al-Qaeda's name.

Still the aim of many of these groups is to capitalise on any power vacuums; to sow and then exploit chaos. It is worth recalling, then, that the victims of terrorism have been predominantly Muslim (82 to 97 percent over the last five years [PDF]) and that, with their violence and their tyrannical definitions of Islamic virtue, al-Qaeda's affiliates currently menace populations across the Middle East, Southeast Asia and Africa, more than any of us in the west. As such, counter-terrorism policies which privilege military force compound the threat to these already endangered civilians.

After 9/11, much was made of the fact that most of the 19 hijackers came from middle class backgrounds. More than a decade on, al-Qaeda is resurgent in fragile and failing states, including Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, the Egyptian Sinai and Mali, which are also afflicted by grave governance problems, resource scarcity, humanitarian crises, absolute poverty and conflict. Military spending alone cannot deal with the realities that make these environments hospitable to al-Qaeda. More creative solutions are needed, involving a more holistic, human-centred approach, which aims at freeing these vulnerable populations from the violent binary of terrorism and counter-terrorism.