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Re: Opportunities for Obama**

By: DigSpace in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Fri, 09 Nov 12 3:02 AM | 96 view(s)
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Msg. 11561 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 11559 by Cactus Flower)

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Iran seems to me to be more of a ideological political military force than an armageddon megeterroist force. Certainly, they blow people up, fund Hezbollah and so on, but it strikes me more like the the IRA on a bad day or the USSR than al-Qaeda. I think one might get a better feeling for whether that was the case if they were more engaged.

and yes, Iran is a very very important neck of the woods.




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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: Opportunities for Obama**
By: Cactus Flower
in ALEA
Fri, 09 Nov 12 2:49 AM
Msg. 11559 of 54959

hi j-t,

are you certain mutually assured destruction doesn't apply in the middle east? even north korea hasn't nuked the south ... so far.

for myself, i think sanctions and information damage have some impact on iran. i suspect the recent currency kerfuffle in iran was no coincidence. it shook them up quite a bit. and the us also was able to mess with their centrifuges. are they sure they can control their reactors?

i agree that they are trying to use negotiations to stall and buy time. i also think the us and others know this and will try to prevent them doing it.

a lot depends on russian and chinese buy in. i suspect they don't want a war in the region either. if o can persuade them to take a tough stance, there's hope.

i doubt we see more than the surface of things. i understand israel is important. but iran's importance is broader than israel and should be considered not just with respect to it. that is the mistake the us always makes which causes so many problems. these other countries are just as important as israel is. they all have real people in them. they have real interests.

iran has its own fears. one of those fears is that israel will attack them. indeed, netanyahu keeps implying it. aggression cuts both ways.

don't like the mullahs any more than you. but you can't negotiate a viable deal without understanding how the world looks through their eyes.


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