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Re: Opportunities for Obama

By: joe-taylor in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Fri, 09 Nov 12 12:13 AM | 90 view(s)
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Msg. 11556 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 11554 by DigSpace)

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Dig,

You cannot begin to compare Iran to the old Soviet Union. For one thing, the Soviets already had the bomb! For another, the Soviets had an unworkable economic model. Iran, if it gave up its quest for the bomb, already has a working economic model! That just goes to show you how intent the clerics there are on making sacrifices to get the bomb.

The chief cleric in charge of Iran thought that it was foolhearty for Gadhafi in Libya to give up his quest for the bomb when he did and he said that Iran would not make that mistake. One Iran gets the bomb, the whole negotiation process is no longer important for them. And, that is when the fanaticism comes in. Where other nations just want the prestige and international elevation that the bomb gives them, Iran is crazy enough to use it. It is a race against time as to whether the sanctions will work before Iran gets the bomb. And, the only way that the sanctions will really ever work is if the people in Iran rise up and over throw the regime. Iran as it is constituted today rose out of revolution and, just as other regimes in the middle east go, it must die by the revolution just as well. and, as far as the moderates go in Iran, they have no hand. Their only recourse is a bloody revolt and there are probably enough hard line religious conservatives in the nation to put one down just as they did in 2009.

I am a believer in negotiations as the best thing that diplomacy has to offer. However, you have to have a willing partner to negotiate with and, from our view, we do not have one in Iran. All Iran needs to do is to stop their nuclear program and no further negotiations are really needed. It is as simple as that. What else is there to negotiate about?

IOVHO,

Regards,


Joe


To say that "God exists" is the greatest understatement ever made across space and time.


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: Opportunities for Obama
By: DigSpace
in ALEA
Thu, 08 Nov 12 11:28 PM
Msg. 11554 of 54959

JT,

yes on who is in charge. And, generally over the last 33 years, the moderates gain influence, policies relax, and then the hammer comes down as an excuse of an external threat and so on legitimizes a swing back to the fundoright.

I think there is more value to just being at a table than you are giving credit to. The whole respect/legitimacy thing.

There was a big argument for confrontation with the USSR, and another argument that if we just stay out of war, they will implode. Yes, there was the USbuildup, but it was the engagement that settled matters down (in this case getting Reagan to chill out a touch). Then is was just a matter of staying out of a fight.

The same internals are at work in Iran. Iran internally wants to moderate. I believe engagement strengthens the hand of the moderates. Isolation strengthens the hand of the extremists.


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