JT,
yes on who is in charge. And, generally over the last 33 years, the moderates gain influence, policies relax, and then the hammer comes down as an excuse of an external threat and so on legitimizes a swing back to the fundoright.
I think there is more value to just being at a table than you are giving credit to. The whole respect/legitimacy thing.
There was a big argument for confrontation with the USSR, and another argument that if we just stay out of war, they will implode. Yes, there was the USbuildup, but it was the engagement that settled matters down (in this case getting Reagan to chill out a touch). Then is was just a matter of staying out of a fight.
The same internals are at work in Iran. Iran internally wants to moderate. I believe engagement strengthens the hand of the moderates. Isolation strengthens the hand of the extremists.