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**Civil war and the electoral college

By: DigSpace in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Thu, 08 Nov 12 7:39 PM | 73 view(s)
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In parlimentary systems one just forms a party. After elections some sort of coalition is required to govern. The requirements of the electoral college, that 50% of the electors are required makes a multiparty system is incompatible with a directly elected executive, it will generally devolve to the house if any third party gains any sort of real strength. Real strength as measured by winning whole states (but states can amend the winner take all component of elector selection, see ME and NE). One could imagine a tea party, a fiscal party that is a blend of far right and far left fiscal hawks (which currently populate the left and the right) the centrists, and the liberals. But there is no path from here to there, the winner take all and 50% requirement combine to effectively force a 2 party system for anyone's effort to have relevance. So while the republicans will have a civil war, any notion of secession just wont happen. Secession is a path to extinction in American politics.

The lunatics like Ingram are currently arguing that the party is right, but that the voters are wrong. Wiser folks will likely win that debate with the Ingram ilk.

Stage one will be the argument that they don't need to change, they just need to sell better. If they settle on that, they will lose. They will appear disingenuous, they will once again underestimate the electorate, and assume the electorate will just buy the pretty package. Competent opposition will be able to debunk that.

Others (stage two) a bit wiser know they need to change ... folks, oddly, like Newt. Newt is well aware that immigration was something they needed to grow up about. That does not make him a big gov liberal. To the contrary, get them legal, get them on the books, get them paying taxes ... which provides revenue for even more tax-cuts-for-the-rich. At least the guy can think.

They fact is the right has policies that just plain are not canonical economic right wing policies. Family planning, immigration, pot, marriage. Until they get that they will continue to get hammered. The single quickest cure to much of the fiscal chaos is restoration of the age demographic in America - counterbalance old people (takers) with more young people (makers). As clearly not enough white folk have been listening to enough Barry White for some time now, immigration is the path to rectify the age demographic imbalance (the baby boom), housing too. Historically labor and the left is the blocker of immigration as it creates competition in the workforce. By some odd marriage the right has successfully sold to many poor white folk, notably in the south, that organized labor is bad, that progressive taxation is bad ... so the only thing folks have left to cling to is immigration protectionism.

Odd state of affairs in the GOP. And a serious calculator-phobia.


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