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Re: Can Nate Silver (and friends) nail their presidential predictions?*

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Tue, 06 Nov 12 7:41 PM | 92 view(s)
Boardmark this board | The Trust Matrix 		Msg. 11398 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 11396 by clo)
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hi clo,

with apologies, those figures ain't right. using latest figures for whole states at each site:

silver at 538 is at 332.

wang at pec is at 332. "ELECTORAL PREDICTION (mode): Barack Obama 332 EV, Mitt Romney 206 EV. The mode is the single most frequent value on the histogram. It corresponds to the map below, and has a chance of being exactly correct."

huffington post pollster is at 332. "If Obama wins every state in which the model currently shows him ahead (including the non-significant margin in Florida), he would win a total of 332 electoral votes, which is also the model's median estimate."

rcp is at 303

tpm is at 303.

linzer at votamatic is at 303. "With Florida (and its 29 electoral votes) right on the knife edge, this will either be Obama 332-206 if the model projects an Obama victory there, or Obama 303-235 if the model shows Obama behind."

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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: Can Nate Silver (and friends) nail their presidential predictions?
By: clo in ALEA
Tue, 06 Nov 12 7:26 PM 		Msg. 11396 of 54959

I wasn't able to get tinypics to work earlier, but I kept at it ;)))) finally....

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