my baseball predictions didn't pan out so well for the World Series, I've tried to stay out of the prediction business lately.
However!
I'll go with Obama in at 303 electorial votes!
It could be a wild election night and early morning for some of the following reasons:
1. Nate Silver does not elect presidents of the United States!
2. Polls are not always a good indicator of turnout!
3. We feel that the evangelical vote may be a wildcard in this race. They pretty much sat out the 2008 race and they do not like Obama's stances on abortion and gay marriage. If they come out in droves it could affect the race in places where they are strong. On the other side of that coin, they do not like mormons either. So, it is damned if you do and damned if you don't for them. A poll that still resonates with us is the one done earlier this year which stated that 22% of voters will not vote for a mormon, which leaves Romney with 78% to work with if that would be true.
4. There is a great hate and a great racism extant in this nation and recent subjective surveys have that being on the rise since 2008. One survey now places it at above 50%, a rise of 4 points since 2008. A great hate is a great motivator and those souls will come out on election day. We will see if Obama's army of 2008 is still enough together to counter them.
It is a great big nation and this is going to be a great big election! If Obama wins it may not be by all that much in the popular vote. If Romney wins, it will be in a landslide!
Regards,
Joe
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