hi clo,
nope. i have both iowa and virginia as reasonably safe o+2-3 seats.
i don't use rcp, which does not reflect the polls i've seen in va.
as regards fl, the polls say r. i am guessing fl goes o, like you. if o's ground game is insane, then he also gets nc. it is possible, as o is a real innovator in the method side of things.