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Re: national popular voting average*

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Tue, 06 Nov 12 3:39 AM | 95 view(s)
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Msg. 11354 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 11353 by DigSpace)

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dig, if we all go for fl, then no one will have bragging rights. if you want it, i'll take nc and bank on a monster ground game. longer shot, but more fun. if i also keep fl republican, i'll use scott's dempression as my vehicle.

but if you go iowa, i'll keep fl.

no bragging rights for anyone at 303-235.

second thoughts, i'll take fl and nc and double down on the ground game. 347.

that's my final crazy shot. based on nc early voting and mags hearsay.


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: national popular voting average
By: DigSpace
in ALEA
Tue, 06 Nov 12 3:20 AM
Msg. 11353 of 54959

last round Nate got 49 out of 50 correct, and he was off on popular by 1.1 (Obama did better than his Silver's pop vote projection). An average of these compilers is 1.79. FWIW RCP was low by only 0.3 in 2008

If I pull the Insideradvantage Romney+5 poll out of FL and get rid of the internet polls (which all are generally pro-Obama), I get a dead-heat in FL at 48.8

There is no hope for NC.

So do I go with FL as Nate's one wrong state this time, of trust my gut and go with IA?


hmmm


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