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Re: national popular voting average

By: DigSpace in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Tue, 06 Nov 12 3:20 AM | 78 view(s)
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Msg. 11353 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 11351 by Cactus Flower)

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last round Nate got 49 out of 50 correct, and he was off on popular by 1.1 (Obama did better than his Silver's pop vote projection). An average of these compilers is 1.79. FWIW RCP was low by only 0.3 in 2008

If I pull the Insideradvantage Romney+5 poll out of FL and get rid of the internet polls (which all are generally pro-Obama), I get a dead-heat in FL at 48.8

There is no hope for NC.

So do I go with FL as Nate's one wrong state this time, of trust my gut and go with IA?


hmmm


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The above is a reply to the following message:
national popular voting average
By: Cactus Flower
in ALEA
Tue, 06 Nov 12 2:44 AM
Msg. 11351 of 54959

rcp shows lead for obama of 0.7%.

tpm polltracker shows lead for obama of 1.0%

mark blumenthal at pollster shows lead for obama of 1.2%.

silver at 538 shows lead for obama of 2.1%.

sam wang at princeton shows lead for obama of 2.46%.

pollster bags the middle ground, rcp takes the right and wang takes the left. no surprises.

for my own guess - pollster and silver will share the spoils. o to win by 1.7%


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