Replies to Msg. #766542
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 Msg. #  Subject Posted by    Board    Date   
17965 Re: final day ev prediction
   ooh. alea's 332 wins. didn't remember this.
Cactus Flower   ALEA   19 Jan 2016
8:55 PM
11365 Re: final day ev prediction
   Me too CF. And I respect your outlier prediction.
Magdelina   ALEA   06 Nov 2012
6:29 AM

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final day ev prediction

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA
Tue, 06 Nov 12 3:02 AM
Msg. 11352 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 11351 by Cactus Flower)
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wherever possible, assigning swing states according to state averages -

blumenthal at pollster: o 303 r 235

rcp: o 303 r 235

silver at 538: o 303 r 235

tpm polltracker: o 303 r 235

linzer at votamatic: o 303 r 235

sam wang at princeton: o 303 r 206 (no split for florida 29)

electoral-vote.com: o 294 r 220 (no split for colorado 9 and north carolina 15)

looks like strong agreement on the quantitative treatment of the polls pretty much. o 303, r 235.

now it is up to the ground game and voter enthusiasm for additional variables on the day.

i guess 303 is the most likely. i will stick with my outlier at 332 so as not to be conformist. hope mags bags nc for o.