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final day ev prediction

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Tue, 06 Nov 12 3:02 AM | 115 view(s)
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Msg. 11352 of 54959
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wherever possible, assigning swing states according to state averages -

blumenthal at pollster: o 303 r 235

rcp: o 303 r 235

silver at 538: o 303 r 235

tpm polltracker: o 303 r 235

linzer at votamatic: o 303 r 235

sam wang at princeton: o 303 r 206 (no split for florida 29)

electoral-vote.com: o 294 r 220 (no split for colorado 9 and north carolina 15)

looks like strong agreement on the quantitative treatment of the polls pretty much. o 303, r 235.

now it is up to the ground game and voter enthusiasm for additional variables on the day.

i guess 303 is the most likely. i will stick with my outlier at 332 so as not to be conformist. hope mags bags nc for o.


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The above is a reply to the following message:
national popular voting average
By: Cactus Flower
in ALEA
Tue, 06 Nov 12 2:44 AM
Msg. 11351 of 54959

rcp shows lead for obama of 0.7%.

tpm polltracker shows lead for obama of 1.0%

mark blumenthal at pollster shows lead for obama of 1.2%.

silver at 538 shows lead for obama of 2.1%.

sam wang at princeton shows lead for obama of 2.46%.

pollster bags the middle ground, rcp takes the right and wang takes the left. no surprises.

for my own guess - pollster and silver will share the spoils. o to win by 1.7%


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