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Re: Long Odds for Romney in NC, Iowa and Colorado!

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Mon, 05 Nov 12 8:53 PM | 82 view(s)
Boardmark this board | The Trust Matrix 		Msg. 11343 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 11342 by DigSpace)
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hi dig,

i think o has a fairly strong reputation around the rust belt due to the gm bail-out. for me, that is the key factor which has swung the election to o. r's dishonest car ads show just how desperate the rs are in that region. and i think the quality of those ads have sunk him in the end.

ohio is also fairly white and also shows a blue preference in the polls. des moines register says o+5 in iowa. large numbers of white folks will apparently vote for o if he saved their jobs.

i'm expecting o+2-4.

i think nc is the litmus test of the ground game. from mag's feedback and early polling, it may be a larger factor than i'd guessed. can it add more than my 1.3% limit? can it offer the 2-3% o needs? these are questions that only become known afterwards.

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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: Long Odds for Romney in NC, Iowa and Colorado!
By: DigSpace in ALEA
Mon, 05 Nov 12 8:38 PM 		Msg. 11342 of 54959

NC really looks out of reach, and it is NC after all. He won NC by 0.4% against an RCP ave of ).4% for McCain, and swing of 0.8%.

See the table for 2008 State/LastRCP/Actual/Diff

CO 8.5 5.5 3
FL 2.5 1.8 0.7
IA 9.3 15.3 -6 Bradly effect
MI 16.5 13.5 3
NV 12.4 6.5 5.9
NH 9.5 10.6 -1.1
OH 4 2.5 1.5
PA 10.4 7.3 3.1
VA 6.3 4.4 1.9
WI 13.9 11 2.9


I have always said I have to see IA to believe it, the whitest state in the union. Similarly, NV has shown actuals that blow away the thin polling (and see Reid 2010 on that as well). The effective ground same in PA, WI, OH, VA, MI and CO are all well documented. McCain generally over-polled everywhere where there was state polling (with some variation and some going the other way) this generally being attributed to high dem turnout vs rep.

The spin in the ground game has only improved in VA, OH, FL.

D has increased registration vs R in all but NH and CO (of 7 swings).

D has increased early voting in all but NV (of 4 swings).

D has increased absentee requests in all but OH (of 4 swings).

Everything in OH is a guess as they do not register by party, affiliation is assigned by House district winner.

IA could easily surprise to red.

I expect NV to go blue along with the NV senate seat. NV massively under-polls blue. Don't know why.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/10/obamas-edge-the-ground-game-that-could-put-him-over-the-top/264031/

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