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Re: Long Odds for Romney in NC, Iowa and Colorado!

By: DigSpace in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Mon, 05 Nov 12 8:38 PM | 55 view(s)
Boardmark this board | The Trust Matrix 		Msg. 11342 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 11341 by Cactus Flower)
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NC really looks out of reach, and it is NC after all. He won NC by 0.4% against an RCP ave of ).4% for McCain, and swing of 0.8%.

See the table for 2008 State/LastRCP/Actual/Diff

CO 8.5 5.5 3
FL 2.5 1.8 0.7
IA 9.3 15.3 -6 Bradly effect
MI 16.5 13.5 3
NV 12.4 6.5 5.9
NH 9.5 10.6 -1.1
OH 4 2.5 1.5
PA 10.4 7.3 3.1
VA 6.3 4.4 1.9
WI 13.9 11 2.9


I have always said I have to see IA to believe it, the whitest state in the union. Similarly, NV has shown actuals that blow away the thin polling (and see Reid 2010 on that as well). The effective ground same in PA, WI, OH, VA, MI and CO are all well documented. McCain generally over-polled everywhere where there was state polling (with some variation and some going the other way) this generally being attributed to high dem turnout vs rep.

The spin in the ground game has only improved in VA, OH, FL.

D has increased registration vs R in all but NH and CO (of 7 swings).

D has increased early voting in all but NV (of 4 swings).

D has increased absentee requests in all but OH (of 4 swings).

Everything in OH is a guess as they do not register by party, affiliation is assigned by House district winner.

IA could easily surprise to red.

I expect NV to go blue along with the NV senate seat. NV massively under-polls blue. Don't know why.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/10/obamas-edge-the-ground-game-that-could-put-him-over-the-top/264031/


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: Long Odds for Romney in NC, Iowa and Colorado!
By: Cactus Flower in ALEA
Mon, 05 Nov 12 7:59 PM 		Msg. 11341 of 54959

Hi Mags,

this is where we find out if the ground game was worth the money spent on it.

if it makes no difference, the polls are the variable that matters.

if o gains 1-2% from his investment in data mining and swing voter identification, then he can potentially bag nc, fl and co.

but those look to be the only potential targets, looking at the polls.

may be more opportunity in the house and senate, if o is employing the same methods outside the swing states.

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