there's an error in the blodg blog. silver's current numbers are just a wee bit lower than the 87% high before the first debate.
also, the current number is very different: it is higher because time is up even though the margin is tight, whereas the old one was high because of the polling margin.
"First, Nate Silver now gives Obama 86% chance of reelection. That's up from a post-first-debate low of ~60% three weeks ago, and it's higher than the 80% previous all-time peak Obama hit just before the first debate."
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/whos-winning-the-presidential-race-2012-11#ixzz2BM8fnPJz
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