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Re: in the alea polling model

By: DigSpace in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Mon, 05 Nov 12 5:44 PM | 92 view(s)
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Msg. 11323 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 11322 by Cactus Flower)
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alea, yup, 332 is the high end, but it look like FL state legislature will deice the election ... fewer polling places, the gov against extending polling, shortened early voting period, last thru the gates at 7pm got their vote cast at 1am. FL has long been about blocking access, OH is more about simply fudging the votes/machines. With Obama's Pres clout and 1000 lawyers on the ground in OH, it will be hard to steal much there. But FL, I don't know if I could do 6 hours to vote or not. So, I'm going with more like 303. NH will be fun to see as they report so early and fast.

Breaking 300 is always considered a psychological threshold for a clear win. So I'll take 303. Certainly hope he bags the popular though.

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The above is a reply to the following message:

in the alea polling model By: Cactus Flower in ALEA Mon, 05 Nov 12 5:26 PM	Msg. 11322 of 54959
which uses 1.3% as the margin of error, there are only two swing states. colorado and florida. currently they show up as co for o and fl for r. crossing my fingers for 332, if both go o.

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