oh woe, mags.
i think that those numbers that were quoted must be wrong or optimistic at least.
here's a set of data
http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html
colorado not so good (unless your guy knows something about independents that isn't readily apparent to me).
fl and nc do look pretty good.
not sure where your guy's ohio figures come from.
even so, i think the polling averages will mostly assert themselves one way or another.