hi titlewave,
well thought out post.
if you treat the unsafe harbour as simply a medium through which the company tries to develop plausible optimism rather than accuracy, then you find it all kinda makes sense.
similarly, the folks who exchange emails behind the scenes to the principals always think they have the inside scoop. but they also need to swallow a dose of reality once in a while - those contacts are also obviously managed to inculcate contentment. the crack pipe's vapours deliver fantasies as easily as the unsafe harbour. and you can always tell the posts that issue from these sources. they begin "as i understand it ..."
fortunately, once you admit that this company's unsafe or informal communications are a puff gallery, you stop relying upon them and begin to make your own judgements using the formal (actionable) documents that are available and your own native wit.
the next step in finding your own opinion is to recognise that the commentary on these boards is for the most part either determinedly positive or relentlessly negative. you need to purge other folks' judgements and rely upon your own.
this is the only way i have found to have an opinion that i take responsibility for and feel comfortable with. so i don't resent other folks for being wrong. as, like all of us, they often are.
i feel very much in tune with my opinion regarding the damage of poor forecasting. of course, i would have less of a bad opinion of it if the forecasting was randomly bad, in which case sometimes it would be more pessimistic than reality. but for some reason, the bias is always positive. therefore i suppose it is willful. and expresses an ongoing want of caution.
on the other hand, i no longer doubt it is sincere. in my opinion, the recent expansion of the company shows that it was management's actual belief that sales would soon appear. first time that has happened to my knowledge!
indeed, the expansion was the reason i became more positive about wave's prospects. didn't believe anyone was crazy enough to expand like that in the absence of demand signals. more fool me.
but as to your point about guessing - i've made the same point. i cannot criticise the company for poor forecasting and not admit to myself the fact they plainly have a poor grip upon the future.
so i am in waiting mode. waiting for godot, some would say. waiting for substance is the way i see it.
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