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Re: Why You Should Trust NY Times Stat Geek Nate Silver Over Most Cable News Pundits

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Sat, 03 Nov 12 2:42 AM | 91 view(s)
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Msg. 11274 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 11267 by DigSpace)

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it's two things.

time dwindling and the other team adding points.

the nowcast is rising because o's numbers are getting better.

you can see o's numbers getting better in the ev calculator, which is hardly time-related. ev calculator was 299 a few days ago. now it is 303.

i think sam wang conveys time changes better than nate silver in the chart at top left:

http://election.princeton.edu/electoral-college-map/




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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: Why You Should Trust NY Times Stat Geek Nate Silver Over Most Cable News Pundits
By: DigSpace
in ALEA
Sat, 03 Nov 12 1:21 AM
Msg. 11267 of 54959

that is the same as 3 minutes left in the game becoming 2 minutes and so on .... probability moves wit hit.

nate's 3 point three minutes line-up is stated for the thursday before the election, yesterday. i.e. if his model gives 79% on thursday, it is the same as 3 points and three minutes ... but at some point the other team needs to move down the field.


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