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Re: Why You Should Trust NY Times Stat Geek Nate Silver Over Most Cable News Pundits

By: DigSpace in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Sat, 03 Nov 12 1:21 AM | 93 view(s)
Boardmark this board | The Trust Matrix 		Msg. 11267 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 11265 by Cactus Flower)
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that is the same as 3 minutes left in the game becoming 2 minutes and so on .... probability moves wit hit.

nate's 3 point three minutes line-up is stated for the thursday before the election, yesterday. i.e. if his model gives 79% on thursday, it is the same as 3 points and three minutes ... but at some point the other team needs to move down the field.


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: Why You Should Trust NY Times Stat Geek Nate Silver Over Most Cable News Pundits
By: Cactus Flower in ALEA
Sat, 03 Nov 12 1:07 AM 		Msg. 11265 of 54959

hi dig,

yes, but as the days count down, the probabilities change.

silver's at 81% or so for election day. But he's at 83% if the election was today. and that number is rising fast.

if o's numbers keep creeping up, the election day number will creep towards the nowcast, and the nowcast will creep towards 90%.

1 in 10 are not great odds against the favourite.

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