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Re: Why You Should Trust NY Times Stat Geek Nate Silver Over Most Cable News Pundits

By: clo in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Sat, 03 Nov 12 1:17 AM | 80 view(s)
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Msg. 11266 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 11263 by DigSpace)

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Hi Dig,

Karl has some wicked success under his belt

He's also blown it big, as in 2008.
His predictions were dead wrong.




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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: Why You Should Trust NY Times Stat Geek Nate Silver Over Most Cable News Pundits
By: DigSpace
in ALEA
Sat, 03 Nov 12 1:00 AM
Msg. 11263 of 54959

one might point out that nate also said that if one NFL team is ahead by 3 points with three minutes left in the game they have a 79% chance of winning, historically, and that is where this race stands.

Obama is up by 3 with three minutes left.

I have watched a lot of american football. Up by three with three minutes is mostly about who the other QB is, .... in this case Karl and Mitt. Karl has some wicked success under his belt, Mitt (the actual QB, not so much).

In any event 1 out of 5 times the other guys win. Non-stats people look at nate like nate is calling a lock .... nope, he is saying run this 5 times and it wil score Blue 4 out of 5 times, not every time.


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