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Re: Why You Should Trust NY Times Stat Geek Nate Silver Over Most Cable News Pundits

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Sat, 03 Nov 12 1:07 AM | 83 view(s)
Boardmark this board | The Trust Matrix 		Msg. 11265 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 11263 by DigSpace)
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hi dig,

yes, but as the days count down, the probabilities change.

silver's at 81% or so for election day. But he's at 83% if the election was today. and that number is rising fast.

if o's numbers keep creeping up, the election day number will creep towards the nowcast, and the nowcast will creep towards 90%.

1 in 10 are not great odds against the favourite.


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: Why You Should Trust NY Times Stat Geek Nate Silver Over Most Cable News Pundits
By: DigSpace in ALEA
Sat, 03 Nov 12 1:00 AM 		Msg. 11263 of 54959

one might point out that nate also said that if one NFL team is ahead by 3 points with three minutes left in the game they have a 79% chance of winning, historically, and that is where this race stands.

Obama is up by 3 with three minutes left.

I have watched a lot of american football. Up by three with three minutes is mostly about who the other QB is, .... in this case Karl and Mitt. Karl has some wicked success under his belt, Mitt (the actual QB, not so much).

In any event 1 out of 5 times the other guys win. Non-stats people look at nate like nate is calling a lock .... nope, he is saying run this 5 times and it wil score Blue 4 out of 5 times, not every time.

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