Replies to Msg. #765764
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 Msg. #  Subject Posted by    Board    Date   
11266 Re: Why You Should Trust NY Times Stat Geek Nate Silver Over Most Cable News Pundits
   Hi Dig, Karl has some wicked success under his belt He'...
clo   ALEA   03 Nov 2012
1:17 AM
11265 Re: Why You Should Trust NY Times Stat Geek Nate Silver Over Most Cable News Pundits
   hi dig, yes, but as the days count down, the probabilities change....
Cactus Flower   ALEA   03 Nov 2012
1:07 AM

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Re: Why You Should Trust NY Times Stat Geek Nate Silver Over Most Cable News Pundits

By: DigSpace in ALEA
Sat, 03 Nov 12 1:00 AM
Msg. 11263 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 11258 by clo)
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one might point out that nate also said that if one NFL team is ahead by 3 points with three minutes left in the game they have a 79% chance of winning, historically, and that is where this race stands.

Obama is up by 3 with three minutes left.

I have watched a lot of american football. Up by three with three minutes is mostly about who the other QB is, .... in this case Karl and Mitt. Karl has some wicked success under his belt, Mitt (the actual QB, not so much).

In any event 1 out of 5 times the other guys win. Non-stats people look at nate like nate is calling a lock .... nope, he is saying run this 5 times and it wil score Blue 4 out of 5 times, not every time.