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Re: Why You Should Trust NY Times Stat Geek Nate Silver Over Most Cable News Pundits

By: DigSpace in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Sat, 03 Nov 12 1:00 AM | 83 view(s)
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Msg. 11263 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 11258 by clo)

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one might point out that nate also said that if one NFL team is ahead by 3 points with three minutes left in the game they have a 79% chance of winning, historically, and that is where this race stands.

Obama is up by 3 with three minutes left.

I have watched a lot of american football. Up by three with three minutes is mostly about who the other QB is, .... in this case Karl and Mitt. Karl has some wicked success under his belt, Mitt (the actual QB, not so much).

In any event 1 out of 5 times the other guys win. Non-stats people look at nate like nate is calling a lock .... nope, he is saying run this 5 times and it wil score Blue 4 out of 5 times, not every time.


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Why You Should Trust NY Times Stat Geek Nate Silver Over Most Cable News Pundits
By: clo
in ALEA
Sat, 03 Nov 12 12:48 AM
Msg. 11258 of 54959

Why You Should Trust NY Times Stat Geek Nate Silver Over Most Cable News Pundits

by Andrew Kirell

New York Times statistics-based blogger Nate Silver has taken considerable heat (mostly from conservatives) for his prediction that there is a 75-percent probability President Barack Obama is re-elected next week, bucking the popular narrative that this election is largely a horse-race. Despite all the criticism foisted upon the stat geek -- most recently for putting a $1,000 wager behind his electoral prediction -- I would much rather trust him than any of the usual cable news soothsayers.

more:
http://www.mediaite.com/online/why-you-should-trust-ny-times-stat-geek-nate-silver-over-most-cable-news-pundits/


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