54 46 on a no toss up map,
with MT, IN, MO, MA, CT, NH, VA and FL all going blue
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/2012_elections_senate_map_no_toss_ups.html
for those scoring at home that would be Red losing a seat ... essentially losing Lugan's seat cause the Tea Pots went wacko and came up with Mourdoch and the whole rape is God's plan thingy.
Should this happen it will make for a strong case to migrate back towards more moderate senate candidates.
The Big Demographics in store for the next decade continue to be the migration of TX (and some others) into swing states, but that is likely 2 cycles out ... 2020. Just as some dem bastions have become negotiable (say MN e.g.). The question remains if this will portend a broad moderation of American politics.
If by some freak of fate Obama wins, the House returns essentially intact, the Senate moves a seat towards Dem, and the folks put together the "grand compromise" of simplifying the tax code, broadening the tax code, diminishing the ability to duck the tax code among the more wealthy, exhibit moderation in spending AND have an economic rebound improving gross receipts THEN, one could imagine that two iterations of Clintonomics will have a durable impact on large sections of the electorate leading towards a more moderate political landscape.
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