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Re: It seems I underestimated the Firewall

By: DigSpace in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Fri, 02 Nov 12 9:35 PM | 83 view(s)
Boardmark this board | The Trust Matrix 		Msg. 11250 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 11248 by Cactus Flower)
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I've stated before I hold no rational feelings when it comes to OH. I think Rove has criminal roots there ... I saw a spread of adds targeting African American that are beyond the pale, the GOP managed to assembly something like a billion door-to-door people the night before the election to tell them that Gore was going to take their gun, they would have to turn it in on Thursday. The voting machine really did route through Rove's garage (or a sub of his). The point? Polling only means a little bit in OH. That means it is dicey. No doubt the AFL-CIO and folks mean business, no doubt they are do what they can, but Rove has Zombies. How can one compete with Zombies?

In 2004 Bush beat the spread in OH by 1.5 and beat the exit polls by 6.7 ...

"The 2004 election was stolen. There is absolutely no doubt about it. A 6.7% shift in exit polls does not happen by chance. And, you know, so finally, we have irrefutable confirmation that what we were saying was true and that every piece of the puzzle in the Ohio 2004 election was flawed," Wasserman said.

Read more: http://www.benzinga.com/news/11/07/1789905/forget-anonymous-evidence-suggests-gop-hacked-stole-2004-election#ixzz2B5RZvtRa


Ohio IS, by rule, Dicey.


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: It seems I underestimated the Firewall
By: Cactus Flower in ALEA
Fri, 02 Nov 12 8:54 PM 		Msg. 11248 of 54959

hi dig,

i just don't see ohio as dicey. the only times i see it in play are the seriously dodgy polls. in general, it runs 2-4% o, like the others. but as it is so heavily polled, the margin of error is probably only +/- 1% at most

here's sam wang: http://election.princeton.edu/perverse-media-incentives-cillizza-2nov2012.php

the big story in my view is that the numbers are generally reverting towards the ones before Obama's September and Romney's early October.

Latest polls show NH is moving back to Obama:

New England College NEW! 10/29 - 10/31 1,017 LV 50 44 4 Obama +6
NBC/WSJ/Marist 10/28 - 10/29 1,013 LV 49 47 3 Obama +2
PPP (D) 10/26 - 10/28 874 LV 49 47 5 Obama +2
Lake Research (D-USAction) 10/24 - 10/28 400 LV 47 42 7 Obama +5
Grove Insight (D-Project New America) 10/24 - 10/25 500 LV 47 44 7 Obama +3
New England College 10/23 - 10/25 571 LV 49 46 4 Obama +3

Small Obama advantage across most of the swing states. VA looks a bit stronger for o recently. FL is pretty much tied again. The only one moving slightly rightwards is CO.

In the national polls, which matter very little, 5 of the last 10 show O winning, 4 are tied, 1 shows Romney winning.

My only question now is, are the state polls as accurate as last time. If they are, O wins. Quite handily.

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