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Re: I guess I could say **

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Fri, 02 Nov 12 1:09 AM | 101 view(s)
Boardmark this board | The Trust Matrix 		Msg. 11223 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 11221 by joe-taylor)
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hi j-t,

i tend to discount the national polls in favour of the state ones. gallup has been an outlier and they have had poor success in recent elections. rasmussen also is reliably red. otherwise, at the national level, it appears to be a tie and moving slightly bluewards.

i think voter enthusiasm is baked into the state polls that we read about every day. they ask folks which candidate they will vote for. if they are not sure, they float into the undecided column. this is why o's totals are less than they were last time.

taking illinois as an example, we have heard from csl that the republicans are filled with enthusiasm. yet o leads the polls by around 20%. personal experience can be awfully unreliable.

the dems have invested a great deal more in their ground game. so i doubt that is going to be a problem.

i am currently watching four or five quantitative posters. they all say the same thing. state polls make o a fairly strong favourite. somewhere around 80-90% probable to win. te betting organisations are slightly lower - around 70%.

sure, there's a chance o loses. but it is very unlikely.

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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: I guess I could say **
By: joe-taylor in ALEA
Fri, 02 Nov 12 12:16 AM 		Msg. 11221 of 54959

CF,

We respect Karl Rove but also know that he can be full of shit!!! The only unease that we have here is the turnout dcountrywide. We live in the red state part of blue state Illinois and we can tell you that these people down here are going to turn out in mass to vote Barack Obama out of office if they can. We saw a CNN poll that put republican enthusiasm at ten points higher (69% to 59%) over democrat enthusiasm. Much of this may be coming from red states that Romney is going to win anyway, however, just a point or two increase in overall turnout on either side may make all the difference in the end.

To summerize, enthusiasm ad turnout are going to be the keys to this election. Looking at Gallop, they have Obama and Romney tied among registered voters but, before they suspended due to Sandy, had Romney up about four to five points in likely voters, which dovetails into an enthusiasm gap. Whomever has the best ground game on election day may carry the day. Obama's is good and we will see how good Romney's works out to be.

There are intangibles to this campaign and the free publicity that president Obama has gotten with all of those photo's of all of those flood survivors hugging him with shopworn faces is priceless and worth more than mere money can buy! Another intangible is the climate change issue that mayor Bloomberg brought up in his endorsement of president Obama. Many independents and unaligned voters are vitally interested in this issue and Romney is merely paying a very little bit of lip service to the issue. With two huirricanes hitting the east coast in thirteen months, whomever is in charge over the next four years matters.

IOVHO,

Regards,


Joe

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