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Re: I guess I could say **

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Thu, 01 Nov 12 10:16 PM | 91 view(s)
Boardmark this board | The Trust Matrix 		Msg. 11215 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 11214 by joe-taylor)
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hi j-t,

sounds like you are guilty of the crime of listening to wibbly-wobbly pundits!! ;-)

the quants pretty much all say the same thing. ohio is about as robust a firewall as it has been all along.

"Oct. 31: Obama’s Electoral College ‘Firewall’ Holding in Polls

...But it turns out that an N.F.L. team that leads by a field goal with three minutes left to go winds up winning the game 79 percent of the time. Those were Mr. Obama’s chances in the FiveThirtyEight forecast as of Wednesday: 79 percent.

Not coincidentally, these are also about Mr. Obama’s chances of winning Ohio, according to the forecast." - nate silver.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/01/oct-31-obamas-electoral-college-firewall-holding-in-polls/#more-36981

but i agree that florida is dribbling towards o and is in play.


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: I guess I could say **
By: joe-taylor in ALEA
Thu, 01 Nov 12 9:55 PM 		Msg. 11214 of 54959

We're not sure that Ohio is the firewall any longer. We've always been looking at Florida. Now, with hurricane Sandy providing flashbacks of what has happened so often down there, we think that many Floridians will put politics aside and vote their hearts for a president who so obviously cares so much about Americans in general. Having someone in their state like Rick Scott with his low approval ratings and seeing what a Chris Christie can do as an effective governor might only amplify those feelings.

And, beyond that, Americans everywhere might be thinking with all of this uncertainty about climate change that so many have seen first hand that it might be nice to have a competent leader in charge for the next four years instead of someone who will tell you whatever you want to hear and do exactly what he pleases afterward.

Regards,


Joe

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