Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/30/2012 20:39 -0400
New York City
recovery
In a stunningly accurate prediction of what to expect from a 100-year storm, the following 2011 report assessing the 'risk increase to infrastructure due to a sea level rise' provides everything you did not want to know about just how bad the situation is with recovery from Sandy's damage but were afraid to ask. Based on extrapolations from storm surge heights, the authors see a 'perfect storm' of this magnitude likely creating a total loss between $50 and $100bn. As Atlantic Cities notes, citing the report: The researchers also estimate that... it could take the subway system about 21 days to get working at 90 percent functionality. If all potential damage is considered, ...that timeline could increase to several months, and that "permanent restoration of the system to the full revenue service that was previously available could take more than two years."
Obviously these are only predictions, but the detail and prescience of the report are stunning in their accuracy now that the 'event' has occurred. Of course, the MTA has done whatever possible to prepare - and will do everything to get this vital infrastructure back in service but with the head of MTA noting this is the worst disaster ever, we suspect the 4-5 day estimate is over-promising.
The vast majority of New York City’s and the MEC region’s basic infrastructure (in its narrow sense of engineered structures and systems) was built and developed between about 100 and 50 years ago. This buildup occurred during the time of largest population influx, primarily driven by immigration. Today, with about 20 Million people living, working and commuting in its 31 counties, the MEC region is home to the largest public transportation system in the US...
...But without a properly functioning regional public infrastructure, private “Wall Street” and other major business sectors of the region could not exist. Infrastructure systems behave like inter-dependent growing organisms. This interdependence poses risks, however. If one system fails or under-performs, others can be severely affected...
Here is the prediction for storm surge areas:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-30/sandy-total-loss-estimate-100-billion
Realist - Everybody in America is soft, and hates conflict. The cure for this, both in politics and social life, is the same -- hardihood. Give them raw truth.
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