It seems the Blue wagons are circling further north,
require OH, and if they can pick off VA or FL or even NH may well survive the day ... and look mandate-ish
Given closeness and all, I still go with Romney pulling victory from defeat. In my brief several decades close things go one, and only one, direction.
It is like WAVX. I require data to disrupt my experience. I lack such.
I hear about a Blue ground game, read that old white men might be walking away from Red, that Mitt is s bit to slippery, I still wonder if a mega-blitz effectively delivered can land FL blue (but nobody seems to thinks so), and can imagine NH and VA coming back.
But in the end, I fear the worst.
If I were a betting man, I would not bet, the race s a push. If I simply go state by state and apply what I believe through personal experience and communication with people that live in these places (and polls, certainly I look at polls) then honestly, doom-and-gloom aside I have Blue at 271 ... being carried by the swing players NV, WI, MI, OH, PA, OR, and MN .... and losing all other contested territory.
Two. Fuggin. Seventy. One.
I do not, have not, and will not until shown otherwise predict Blue winning on 271. They win by more or they lose. Red always wins the close ones.
In 10 years Texas will flip, in ten years the US map will have lost a key red player, or at least that for decades to come Texas will be contested. We know that VA and NC are contestable, FL always has been. The discussion will move away from Farm Bills and so on, the hold the contestable IA, WI, wit their combined 16 botes that they have for some time now held will fade ... the double digits states will reassert (as they are mostly pre-counted: TX, NY, CA, GA, TN, IN, MA, NJ, MD, AZ. Bring any of those states back into the debate, and the debate changes. The most likely are TX, AZ and perhaps IN. They are all red, time and demographics are threatening to Red.
Mitt is the perfect transitional candidate to Red, all that social stuff is just a lie for him (or at least a lot of it) he is pro-choice, pro-RombamaCare, pro Federal authority.
Yes, he will have to wiggle out of those lies, but if he does so successfully he can recast a more moderate Red.
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