As close as I can tell by looking at the general elections since 2004 the Democrats outnumber Republicans by about 5% to 6% in Illinois. In 2010 it was closer.
Obama won 70% of the statewide vote in the 2006 Senate campaign but that was one screwball affair. Republicans imported Alan Keyes after the Republican front runner blew himself up. Obama won in the Democratic primary after the Democrat front runner blew himself up. It was an overall Democratic year nationwide.
In 2008 Obama got 62% against McCain.
In 2010 the Democrat overall advantage statewide fell to around 4% and the Republicans won the Senate seat and nearly won the Governor seat.
We won't know until election day but my sense is the Republican turnout will be strong across the board and the Democrat turnout less so. Chicago represents a big part of the Democrat base but that base is comprised of a large catholic component. The catholic church is asking catholics to "vote their conscience" in the election. Enthusiasm on college campuses is down, as it is among black voters.
At this point it is Obama's to lose but Romney has a slight chance to pull off a big surprise in Illinois.
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