BO has to somehow do a town hall, that is speak to and ingratiate himself with the crowd so to speak (a thing Romney has as much or more skill at) and blow Romney up at the same time.
Just as with Biden I think a haughty road of "the Congressmen" was the way to go (seriously, I do not advice Axelrod, but that was CERTAINly my advice) ... this time the key phrase is "My Opponent".
Look at the crowd, talk to the crown and America (the camera) and at every moment refer to "My Opponent".
My Opponent's math is a ruse. That must be the message.
I give it a 15% chance of success, and with that put a Obama victory at about 45%.
The candidates comparative strengths:
Obama: empathetic, a professor (very capable in scripted delivery), remarkably consistent.
Romney: a professor (same as above), a capable politician, and adept liar (most of what he says is not what he believes or will do at any moment).
The candidates comparative weaknesses:
Obama: the professor becomes complicated and aloof, does not respond well on the fly, is challenged to convert empathy into policy.
Romney: severely challenged in anything resembling consistency, carries the anchor of dishonesty ... he won't revel his plans, cause he knows folks would vote against them.
In the upcoming style of debate, I doubt Obama will emerge the victor ... and then it is over baby.
Obama is boxed in. He cannot fully go into Libya, he's the CiC (damned if you do, damned if you don't) on the flip side, Romney apparently, doesn't need to explain the 10 trillion dollar shortfall in his math. One solution requires detail and truth, the other simply a friendly posture and sweet nothings.
A complicated aloof empathetic genuine person against a more politically savvy capably disingenuous adversary. Romeny wins.
By Thursday Nate will have Obama at 45%.
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