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Re: obama lead in ohio

By: clo in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Fri, 12 Oct 12 1:29 AM | 122 view(s)
Boardmark this board | The Trust Matrix 		Msg. 10778 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 10762 by Cactus Flower)
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more to chew on

*** A deep dive into Ohio: Our new NBC/WSJ/Marist poll also provides two explanations why Obama maintains his lead in the Buckeye State. One is early voting. According to the survey, nearly 1 in 5 respondents have already voted in Ohio, and Obama is winning them by a 63%-37% margin; among those who plan to vote on Election Day, Romney is leading, 52%-42%. What also helps to explain the president’s advantage is party ID. Last week, it was D+5 among likely voters; this week it’s D+11. But here is something else to chew on: 46% of likely voters in the survey describe themselves as conservative (when it was 35% in 2008, per the exit poll). So while the poll’s party ID in Ohio was more Democratic than last week, it was also much more conservative. Meantime, the NBC/WSJ/Marist poll of Virginia was more Republican.

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/11/14366786-first-thoughts-marginal-change?lite




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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: obama lead in ohio
By: Cactus Flower in ALEA
Thu, 11 Oct 12 7:31 PM 		Msg. 10762 of 54959

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-ohio-president-romney-vs-obama?gem

this chart appears to me to show obama holding a consistent lead of at least 3% in ohio. and that romney's debate bump has run out of steam shy of the numbers he needs to achieve.

i suspect yesterday was about the best he can do, in the absence of some major new gaffe by obama. and even his best doesn't win the election. it just carves out a bunch of toss up states. iowa, wisconsin, ohio look blue to me.

today, i think the big fight will be over medicare. so florida. but what use is that to romney? how does he appeal to the blue three?

romney means gm bankruptcy in those parts. they don't seem to like him.

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