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Re: For The Record:

By: DigSpace in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Sat, 06 Oct 12 10:38 PM | 132 view(s)
Boardmark this board | The Trust Matrix 		Msg. 10623 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 10621 by clo)
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nate's opinions reflect available data, and will change if and when data changes, as nate so often says.

My comments do not dispute nate's current opinion, but wander into a different area of speculation where nate stately does not play ... and certainly nate has more discipline in amending perceptions based on data until a more robust set has arrived.

Nate's current projects vote totals for FL, IA, VA, and CO are all a hare's breath over 50, all with number sets that are currently deteriorating, and with which his lagging technology will need to play catch-up in the next 5 days as old numbers purge and new numbers cycle in.

Most recent samples for those 4 states are less than encouraging. Losing those 4 states migrates towards my 275. In such a case, NV, WI, OH and NH become must wins ... states I expect to be won.

Ryan failing to deliver WI, particularly if it proves to be decisive will/would be sweet.


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: For The Record:
By: clo in ALEA
Sat, 06 Oct 12 10:12 PM 		Msg. 10621 of 54959

Nate's take, much more at the site I posted the last four paragraphs.

The FiveThirtyEight forecast did show a clear shift toward Mr. Romney on Friday, giving him a 15.1 percent chance of winning the Electoral College — up from 12.9 percent on Thursday.

My subjective view is that, despite the somewhat mixed messages that the polls gave about the magnitude of Mr. Romney’s bounce, this is still too conservative. The forecast model is pretty “smart” about distinguishing random movements in the polls from real ones, and so can be fairly conservative in interpreting the data. However, it does not have the advantage of knowing that the shifts may have come for a good reason — in this case, Mr. Romney’s strong performance in the debate.

So I would bet on Mr. Romney right now given the odds the model offers — but I’d have done so more confidently before the morning’s jobs report.

It’s going to take a few more days for the forecast model to catch up to the news, and I don’t think there’s any alternative but to keep an open mind about the polls for right now.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

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