Nate Silver places considerable value certainly in what the polls say, but more importantly, what the trend is within a particular polling organization.
Gravis or We Ask America or Gallup etc may have their flaws .. but where were they?, and what change has occurred within the set described by their methods?.
This underlying thingy, whether one fabricates pre-ordained sampling or not, this trend within a single poll - is only yucky for Red right now.
It is the case at the Senate level, at the approval level, at the most fit level, at the swing state level and at the national level.
So if one is to accept that their methods are flawed, it is nevertheless the case that in every flawed circumstance, the movement is away from Romney.
Given that all agree at varying levels that it is close, AND that all (by what they reprot) agree that whatever the absolute values are, the dynamic is moving away from Romney ..., can only be a matter of considerable concern on the right.
So if one accepts that +5 Obama is wrong and it is only +1 ... the reality is those numbers constinue to get worse for Romney.
I expect that after Debate#1, that Rasmussen will move back to Ronmey +1-2, that Gallup will slide back to Obama +1-2 and so on.
A notable feature to me is that the polls that show the highest spread for Obama fall the furthest away from sum=100 and the polls which are closer score a greter percentage of the respondents.
Example
Rasumusen Obama +3 (based on 50% Obama, 47% Mitt ... 3% scoring for neither or firmly undecided)
Gallup Obama +5 (based on 49% Obama, 44% Mitt, 7% scoring for neither or firmly undecided). 7% ar enot going to vote for somebody else, that will likely be the normal 3% this year as there is no Nader/Perot personality harvesting those votes.
Generally, 1 out of every 33 people enters the booth and deliberately says screw these guys.
The Rasmussen poll is in line with that, the Gallup poll has 4% unplaced voters that will place.
I'm thinking at 50.x 48.x final popular vote. I'm also thinking that Axelrod has been thinking that all along (that whoever wins, those will be the numbers), has been planning all along to win that race based on that being the actual race, and will win that race.
That tighter race result is 317 Obama (by my math) (or maybe 304).
The current polls do not support it, I expect Romney to successful recapture some 'anything but Obama' momentum after the debate, but that the Dems have defined him just adequately and reinvigorated their base just adequately enough to be the ones waling out of this with the 50.x hand as opposed to the 48.x hand.
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