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Re: new swing states*

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Thu, 27 Sep 12 7:43 AM | 38 view(s)
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Msg. 10347 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 10345 by tkc)

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hi tkc,

i think environment eclipses skin colour.

i'd guess latino hicks and farmers will vote much like white hicks and farmers. and i daresay the reason so many latinos vote dem is because they preponderantly live in cities. other factors also include gop hostility, which exacerbates the environmental factors.

i also think fellow feeling informs the black vote for obama, but it would be high regardless of his colour. and again, the vast majority of black people live in high density regions.

i don't necessarily accept the thesis that because younger people tend to vote democratic that therefore as they age, a greater proportion of the population will vote dem. one can just as easily argue that people tend to lean towards republican ideas as they age and so the views of this generation will turn red as they retire. not sure what is true.




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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: new swing states*
By: tkc
in ALEA
Thu, 27 Sep 12 5:14 AM
Msg. 10345 of 54959

Sure CF, but the shift will continue as northern black and hispanic birth rates exceed that of whites (liberal or conservative) while northern senior whites migrate to warmer temperatures. Also generally blacks and hispanics being less affluent are economically predisposed to domicile in urban areas. Then consider that current seniors,which vote slightly in favor of the GOP, are being replaced by the next generation which leans Dem. I'm sure that none of this is news to you. Demographics will force the GOP to change or diminish in influence. That's my hope as I had respect for the GOP pre Reagan. Newt ended any residue that remained.


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