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Re: new swing states*

By: tkc in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Thu, 27 Sep 12 5:14 AM | 42 view(s)
Boardmark this board | The Trust Matrix 		Msg. 10345 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 10344 by Cactus Flower)
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Sure CF, but the shift will continue as northern black and hispanic birth rates exceed that of whites (liberal or conservative) while northern senior whites migrate to warmer temperatures. Also generally blacks and hispanics being less affluent are economically predisposed to domicile in urban areas. Then consider that current seniors,which vote slightly in favor of the GOP, are being replaced by the next generation which leans Dem. I'm sure that none of this is news to you. Demographics will force the GOP to change or diminish in influence. That's my hope as I had respect for the GOP pre Reagan. Newt ended any residue that remained.


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Re: new swing states*
By: Cactus Flower in ALEA
Thu, 27 Sep 12 3:13 AM 		Msg. 10344 of 54959

Yes, surely, to some extent.

But the thing one notices on electoral maps is how red the low population countryside is and how blue the cities are.

I'd have thought population density explained about 75-80% of all results, regardless of skin colour or age. Alaska is going to be red, New York and California are going to be blue.

A few surprises - New Mexico, Vermont and Oregon, for instance. But basically, where there are more than 200 people per square mile, it will be a Democratic state. And where there are less than 100, it will be a Republican state. And the ones between 100 and 200 are mostly in play.

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2011_fotw661.html

That means the Deep South is more likely to swing Democratic than the Mid-West.

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