might make some sense.
I mean if CA is only say 10 or 15% then a number of 20-25% states in the south and mountain west can pull that flat. The non-swing states don't get polled individually, but they are in the national polls.
Sure, glancing at the limited non-swing polling there is out there makes it not seem to add up, but a lot of it could be the LV/RV bias in many of those states. Reds vote no matter what, Blues have a BBQ if their state is in the bag. Seriously, NY? Unless your district happens to be in play, it seems plenty of folks would fail the LV test.
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