this is way too cautious. i think they are trying to keep people watching their news show on tenterhooks.
silver is estimating 308 obama. pollster is on 317 obama. looking at the polls, these aren't unreasonable. romney's campaign is imploding and the right wing pollsters are trying to make things look as good as they can. but it should not change the linear regression so much by removing a pollster. and i'm afraid there are some that fail this test consistently.
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