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Re: Rasmussen

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Sat, 22 Sep 12 2:27 AM | 83 view(s)
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Msg. 10239 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 10236 by clo)

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this is way too cautious. i think they are trying to keep people watching their news show on tenterhooks.

silver is estimating 308 obama. pollster is on 317 obama. looking at the polls, these aren't unreasonable. romney's campaign is imploding and the right wing pollsters are trying to make things look as good as they can. but it should not change the linear regression so much by removing a pollster. and i'm afraid there are some that fail this test consistently.


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: Rasmussen
By: clo
in ALEA
Sat, 22 Sep 12 1:10 AM
Msg. 10236 of 54959

*** Obama’s battleground edge grows: In NBC's first battleground map since the conventions and a slew of new state polling, President Obama has expanded his electoral-vote lead over Mitt Romney -- but only slightly. There are now 243 electoral votes in Obama’s column and 191 in Romney’s, with 104 in the Toss-up category; 270 are needed to win the presidency. Last month, before the conventions, the president was ahead 237-191. The one change: We've moved Iowa from Toss-up to Lean Obama based on our new NBC/WSJ/Marist polls and our conversations with the campaigns. Perhaps in no other state outside of Ohio and Virginia has Obama done more physical campaigning than in Iowa, and it appears to have paid off. Since April, he’s made seven visits and held 15 different events in the state, compared with Romney’s seven visits but just seven events. Re-read the comparison again -- this is a regular discrepancy between the Obama and Romney campaigns. The president packs in a lot more events, on average, when he visits a battleground state than Romney does.

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/09/21/14010421-first-thoughts-obamas-battleground-edge-grows?lite


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